By Frank Coppola
*Notes:
- NFL Comparison – This is a comparison of the playing style of a draft prospect to the NFL quarterback that I believe the prospect most resembles. This is NOT a measure of talent or ability, but rather of the player’s style.
- Value – This is the round/pick that I believe the player should be drafted based on his talent, potential, and overall ability.
- Projected Pick – This is the round/pick that I believe the prospect will be selected by an NFL franchise in the 2017 Draft.
Quarterbacks:
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Mitch Trubisky (North Carolina)
Strengths:
- High completion percentage (68.0%) and low interception total (6) in only season as starter
- Prototypical NFL quarterback size (6’3’’, 220 lbs.)
- Ability to connect on mid-range and deep tight window passes
- Reads secondary coverage well to make smart plays in between defenders
- Accurately connects on mid-range and deep throws when on the run
- Exhibits poise in the pocket when under pressure and great mobility to buy time for his receivers downfield
- Ability to scramble and make plays on the ground running the ball
- Competent redzone passer – ability to roll out and make tight throws to receivers
Weaknesses:
- Lack of experience (13 career starts) and issues with consistency may mean he will need some time to develop
- Tendency to bypass reads when under pressure and hit check-down receivers
- Operated in a passing system that favored slant patterns, screen passes, and read-option zone runs
- Often does not set his feet and makes errant throwing motion causing inaccuracy
- Throws off his back foot when making some deep throws causing under-thrown passes
NFL Comparison: Matt Stafford
Value: Top 10
Projected Pick: Top 5
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Patrick Mahomes II (Texas Tech)
Strengths:
- Constant improvement in completion percentage through three years at Texas Tech (56.8%, 63.5%, and 65.7% from 2014-2016 respectively)
- Ability to scramble, avoid pass rushers, and/or run the ball when the pocket breaks down
- Makes accurate passes downfield when being forced to roll out of the pocket and throw on the run
- Strongest arm in the draft class; can accurately connect on a wide range of deep passing routes on both sides of the field
- Elusive runner who can break through the line of scrimmage and make plays on the ground
- Poised and accurate when facing pass rushers and blitz packages
Weaknesses:
- High interception totals in two years as the Texas Tech starter (15 and 10 in 2015 and 2016 respectively)
- Inconsistent accuracy when throwing deep passes down the sideline
- Has some timing issues on quick comeback and curl routes
- Often forces passes into tight coverage leading to interceptions and incompletions
- Developmental quarterback prospect who will need to progress in an NFL system and pass with more consistent accuracy
NFL Comparison: Cam Newton
Value: Top 20
Projected Pick: Early 2nd Round
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Davis Webb (California)
Strengths:
- Elite size for an NFL quarterback (6’5’’, 230 lbs.)
- Ability to read defenses and complete deep throws in tight coverage
- Exhibits confidence and poise when standing in the pocket and going through his progressions and reads
- Patience in the pocket allows his receivers to finish routes and create space and throwing lanes
- Pinpoints receivers on deep routes and throws the ball into space to lead receivers between coverage
- Remains poised when under pressure and avoids a loss of yards by throwing the ball away or hitting his check-down receiver
Weaknesses:
- Transferred to California in junior year after losing starting quarterback job to Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech
- Inconsistent, sloppy footwork sometimes leads to accuracy issues
- Inability to run the ball and gain yards on the ground when plays breakdown (negative rushing yards in 2016)
- Often lazy and sloppy when making passes on short routes
- Has a habit of staring down intended receivers and allowing the secondary to jump on passes
- High volume of interceptions signals poor decision-making and lack of awareness (12 interception in 2016)
NFL Comparison: Eli Manning
Value: Late 1st Round
Projected Pick: Early 3rd Round
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DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame)
Strengths:
- Great pocket awareness to sense pass rush and step up to make throws under pressure
- Mobility gives him the ability to scramble outside the pocket and extend plays
- Elite footwork and throwing mechanics translate to his passing accuracy
- Has the ability to rush on designed quarterback running plays and contribute to the ground game (525 rushing yards in 2016)
- Very accurate throwing passes on the run when rolling out to his right side
Weaknesses:
- Functioned as a game-manager and read-option style quarterback, so most of his throws were short-mid range passes
- Low passing touchdown totals in two seasons as starting quarterback (21 and 26) lead to concerns in production through the air
- Relatively untested on deep throws; potential issues in development and ability to complete NFL passes
- Sometimes struggles with timing and accuracy on quick passes like slant patterns and curl routes
- Gets caught forcing passes into tight coverage, which can lead to interceptions
- Struggles with accuracy when rolling out to his left side
NFL Comparison: Russell Wilson
Value: Early 2nd Round
Projected Pick: Late 1st Round
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Deshaun Watson (Clemson)
Strengths:
- Dynamic runner with the ability to contribute to the rushing attack to open the offense up
- Consistent mechanics and quick release when making passes
- Experience in high-pressure situations – national champion with four CFB playoff game appearances
- High production level – 12,097 total yards and 116 total touchdowns in three seasons at Clemson
- National recognition and success at the collegiate level: national champion, two-time Heisman runner-up, two CFB playoff appearances (four total playoff games)
Weaknesses:
- Played in a read-option system and will require development to learn how to operate in an NFL offensive system
- Consistently inaccurate on deep throws; often under-throws and relies on his receivers to bail out poor passes
- Lack of ability to stand in the pocket to complete passes; has the need to run outside of the pocket to make his throws
- Poor timing and accuracy; constantly under-throws receivers who gain a step on their defender
NFL Comparison: Robert Griffin III
Value: Early 3rd Round
Projected Pick: Top 20
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Nathan Peterman (Pittsburgh)
Strengths:
- NFL QB size – 6’3’’ height and 225 lbs.
- Exhibits great poise and comfort in the pocket and has very consistent footwork on drop backs and throwing motion
- Makes very smart decisions when facing pass rush and has the ability to complete accurate throws with pass rushers in his face
- Relatively low amount of interceptions (15 total in two seasons as starter) signals great decision-making and ability to take care of the ball
- Operates as a game manager-styled passer, but has shown the ability to make deep throws when his offense calls upon it
- Has the mobility to scramble and create versatility to open up the running game
Weaknesses:
- Throwing velocity is sometimes an issue when he struggles to get power behind his throw
- Low passing yards and touchdown totals in 2015 and 2016 (2,287 yards and 20 TD’s; 2,855 yards and 27 TD’s respectively) signal low production and his role as a situational passer
- Inconsistent accuracy against tougher defenses; had a 61.5% and 60.5% completion percentage in 2015 and 2016 respectively
- Transferred from Tennessee in 2015 after failing to secure the starting quarterback job; originally lost starting job at Tennessee due to issues with turnovers and accuracy
NFL Comparison: Alex Smith
Value: Mid-Late 3rd Round
Projected Pick: 5th Round
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Jerod Evans (Virginia Tech)
Strengths:
- Prototypical NFL QB size at 6’4’’ and 235 lbs.
- Strong, accurate arm on deep passes and has shown the ability to make throws from both inside and outside of the pocket
- Great mobility and movement in the pocket – able to scramble and has the arm strength to throw on the run
- Has the physical strength to dominate in the redzone on tough short yardage runs as well as the ability to break off long runs down the field
- Defeated fellow top quarterback prospects Trubisky, Kizer, Peterman, and Kaaya during the 2016 season and kept up with Watson in a close loss to Clemson
- Possesses the tools to develop into a capable backup and a potential starter
Weaknesses:
- History of injury – tore his ACL in 2013 while playing at the Air Force Academy; led to his transfer to community college
- Has only one year as a Power Five conference starter
- Errant footwork often causes inaccuracies and sloppiness in his passes
- Has displayed the ability to run, but posted average 40 time (4.8) at the combine among quarterbacks
- Developmental prospect – will need time to develop consistent mechanics and ability to read NFL defenses
- Minimal D1 experience may lead to a lack of ability to read defenses at the next level
NFL Comparison: Jameis Winston
Value: 4th Round
Projected Pick: 5th Round
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Brad Kaaya (Miami)
Strengths:
- Great pocket mobility and ability to avoid pass rushers to extend plays
- Makes smart decisions when receivers are in coverage to utilize check-down or throw the ball away
- Experienced three-year starter with three bowl appearances
- Has displayed an ability to finish drives and score touchdowns when in the redzone and/or on the goal line
- Ability and strength to throw on the run when under pressure
Weaknesses:
- Inconsistent accuracy when targeting mid-range and deep receiver routes
- Often over or under-throws deep routes and exhibits poor timing when receivers get into space
- Operated in a system of short throws and zone runs and was not as tested on deep throws as his fellow quarterback prospects
- Concerns arise about his arm strength – he has been caught lobbing passes that are deep and outside to compensate for his weak arm
- Sometimes seems to be caught uncomfortable in the pocket and is not very fluid when making his drop back
- Athleticism is in question; he opted out of running the 40-yard dash during the combine and posted negative rushing yard totals in each of his three seasons as a starting quarterback
NFL Comparison: Philip Rivers
Value: 5th Round
Projected Pick: 4th Round
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Chad Kelly (Ole Miss)
Strengths:
- Strong pocket awareness; confident pocket presence and has the ability to scramble and run when the pocket breaks down
- Possesses one of the strongest arms in the 2017 quarterback class and displayed his ability to hit open receivers on deep route patterns throughout his career at Ole Miss
- Has very good instincts when reading defenses and utilizes pump fakes to draw in defenders and open up passing lanes
- Great timing and anticipation; ability to diagnose defenses and throw receivers into space
- Very strong and athletic; able to handle taking hits, throw on the run, and make athletic plays
Weaknesses:
- Wide throwing motion and weak mechanics cause his slow release time and may cause problems with velocity when transferring to an NFL offense
- Has the tendency to stare down his receivers and throw passes even if no separation is made; needs to progress through his reads in order to avoid interceptions and incompletions
- Many concerns arise from his off-the-field issues; he was uninvited to the NFL Combine, kicked off the Clemson football team in 2013, and has a history of disorderly conduct
- Often fails to look downfield while throwing on the run and will usually choose to hit check-down man or run the ball even if receivers are open on deeper routes
- Sometimes forces plays (throws or runs) despite tight defense
- Will need time to develop throwing mechanics and ability to read NFL defenses before being considered for playing time at the next level
NFL Comparison: Blake Bortles
Value: 6th Round
Projected Pick: 7th Round
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C.J. Beathard (Iowa)
Strengths:
- Experienced starter in the Big Ten conference; led the Hawkeyes to a 12-0 regular season record in 2015 and appeared in the Rose Bowl
- Demonstrated his ability to run the ball during the 2015 season (237 rushing yards)
- Confidently steps up in the pocket to throw downfield; does not get easily frazzled when facing a pass rush or when the pocket collapses
- Mobile and able to handle pass rush; looks downfield when scrambling in order to throw the ball from outside the pocket
- Exhibited leadership skills as starting quarterback at Iowa and led the team to many signature Big Ten wins against tough opponents
Weaknesses:
- Inconsistent accuracy both in the pocket and on the run; often under-throws passes (56.5% completion percentage in 2016)
- Low passing production due to role as a game-manager style quarterback (1,929 passing yards and 17 passing TD’s)
- Regressed from junior to senior year; posted worse stat numbers in 2016 than 2015 in completion percentage, passing yards, interceptions, passer rating, and rushing yards
- Relatively weak arm in comparison to the rest of the quarterback class; was not tested on deep throws in the Hawkeyes’ system as much as the other prospects were
- Often settles for short, open receivers; not very willing to take shots down the field and throw into tight windows
NFL Comparison: Teddy Bridgewater
Value: 7th Round
Projected Pick: 6th Round
OVERALL:
Most NFL Ready – Mitch Trubisky
Highest Potential – Patrick Mahomes II
Most Overrated – Deshaun Watson
Most Underrated – Davis Webb
Late-Round Steal – Nathan Peterman